[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Ferrochrome Imports Continue to Decline, Awaiting Steel Tender Pricing Finalization

On September 22, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,450-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

At the beginning of the week, the ferrochrome market operated steadily, with a relatively quiet atmosphere for inquiries and transactions. Supported by high planned production and strong demand from downstream stainless steel, the ferrochrome market maintained confidence in a price increase for the October steel mill tender, with the mainstream view expecting another rise of around 200-300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), pending the actual price announcement. In addition, with the National Day holiday approaching, pre-holiday stocking demand is gradually emerging, leading to frequent inquiries and purchase operations recently. According to customs data, China's total imports of high-carbon ferrochrome in August 2025 were 159,100 mt, down 29.9% MoM and 43.4% YoY; imports from South Africa were 60,900 mt, down 43.9% MoM and 56.4% YoY, while imports from Kazakhstan were 76,800 mt, down 2.6% MoM and 17.8% YoY. With a significant reduction in ferrochrome imports, domestic producers, stimulated by good profits, showed high production enthusiasm, maintaining an upward trend in ferrochrome production, resulting in an overall supply-demand tight balance. The ferrochrome market is expected to remain strong and stable in the short term, awaiting guidance from the new round of steel mill tender prices.

Raw material side, on September 22, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 58-59 yuan/mtu; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 59-62 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, and the offer for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day; on the futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280-284/mt; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was $345-355/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the chrome ore market operated steadily, with most participants awaiting the new round of steel mill tender prices, leading to cautious inquiries and purchases, and generally moderate market activity. On the spot side, ferrochrome producers mainly consumed their existing inventory, and with previously low-priced chrome ore arriving at ports, restocking was completed to some extent, limiting demand for spot chrome ore. However, considering the pending release of pre-holiday stockpiling demand and the strong performance of the ferrochrome market, which has boosted confidence in the chrome ore market, traders are mostly optimistic about the future outlook. South African fines showed a stronger willingness to hold prices due to concentrated supply and tight availability; Zimbabwean fine ore demand weakened, with poor sales. In the futures market, overseas miners exhibited a strong willingness to sell, and the upward adjustment in futures offers narrowed, with insufficient momentum for further increases. However, considering that ferrochrome production schedules remain at high levels, providing rigid demand support for chrome ore, it is expected that chrome ore prices will mainly operate steadily in the short term.